That's a wrap

I hope you all had a fantastic 2024 and are as excited as I am for the opportunities ahead in 2025.

While I refrain from sharing “predictions”, I did want to lay out some investing themes that currently have my attention going into the new year. One positive to the Capital Gaines writings is it lets me share these themes to a broader audience more efficiently.

And lastly a big THANK YOU to everyone for reading these. I’ve been humbled by the rate at which you are all engaging with this content! The last 3 writings have all been the most-read emails since inception, with each one getting more eyeballs than the prior one. I am super appreciative of that…and without further adieu my 2025 themes to watch:

• Bitcoin continues to gather more institutional capital and mindshare among investors

• Without a massive uptick in white collar unemployment, the residential RE market could remain resilient even with elevated interest rates

• Because the Mag7 names are tremendously skilled deployers of capital (and they have a lot of it), their relative size of the entire S&P500 could continue to grow

• Coinbase could emerge as a sleeping giant

• If new political policies in states like CA, NY and MA improve, we might see folks return home from places like AZ, TX and FL

• The IPO market has a few catalysts that could awaken it from its multi-year slumber

• Our government will have to continue to print money

• “If you don’t like the collateral, don’t make the loan”

• Twitter/X, AppleTV and YouTube/Meta/TikTok will continue to disrupt the legacy media model

Finally, here is what’s on my radar:

lending & credit

Private Credit is quickly becoming one of the most intriguing asset classes for institutions, family offices and asset managers, and for good reason as interest rates in the high yield universe are quite attractive.

State Street recently announced it was committing $4billion to Affirm, a leader in the Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) space.

Technology has transformed the way small loans are originated. It used to be that these smaller loans were too costly for banks and other traditional lenders to scale up, so these borrowers were largely ignored. As the industry grows and matures, opportunities to allocate to the space are popping up more and more. If the stock market enters a “lull” with choppy/flat returns, we could see even more interest being garnered in the Private Credit arena..

retail

A lot’s been happening in the world of retail, as rising costs, changing consumer tastes and more direct-to-consumer options proliferate the world of e-commerce.

Hudson’s Bay which already owns Saks Fifth Avenue is issuing junk bonds to finance its acquisition of Neiman Marcus.

Nordstrom has announced it is going private in a deal backed by the founding family and a Mexican retailer.

Activists want Macy’s to spin off its real estate holdings into a REIT to better unlock (aka…separate) the value in those assets from its retail business.

Meanwhile, luxury behemoth LVMH bought a 50m Euro villa in Cannes to use for brand events. This marks an intriguing push to combine retail brands with hospitality/experience that if successful, I could see expanding rapidly.

bitcoin

Acclaimed author & economist Lyn Alden is out with her year end letter where she spends a good bit of time focused on the potential of Bitcoin in the years ahead. Alden spends several months a year living in Egypt and from this experience she offers a great perspective on the value of a decentralized asset that cannot be inflated away by any central bank.

Not only is she a brilliant mind but her writing style is very approachable. It’s worth a read.

Clark Gaines focuses on alternative investment strategies at Almanack Investment Partners, and is based in Charleston, SC.

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This communication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or products or to participate in any product or trading strategy. No sale of securities will be made in any jurisdiction in which the offer, solicitation, or sale is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make the offer, solicitation, or sale. If any such offer of securities or products is made, it will be made pursuant to a definitive confidential offering document or other documentation which contains material information not contained herein and to which prospective investors will be referred. Any decision to invest in such securities or products should be made solely in reliance upon such documentation and not this communication. .Information contained herein is based on data obtained from statistical services, company reports or communications, or other sources, believed reliable. However, we have not verified this information, and we make no representations whatsoever as to its accuracy or completeness.  The views and opinions expressed in this communication represent those of Clark Gaines and should not be construed otherwise.Investment Advisory products and services are being offered through Almanack Investment Partners, LLC an SEC registered investment advisor. For additional information about Almanack Investment Partners, LLC, please visit www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.

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