Humility

When I first started writing these letters about 6 weeks ago, I did so mostly for myself…to get my ideas down on digital paper so they wouldn’t continue to pile up inside my head! When I decided to circulate these via this email newsletter I had basically zero expectations that anyone would even read them, but that didn’t matter to me.

I am truly humbled by the response from my readers (you). So far the list has grown to hundreds and hundreds of subscribers. On top of the exceptional open rates…. I REALLY appreciate the responses from some of you that are engaging in the content.

I’ve had scores of folks ping me and ask me to add a friend to the list..which I am happy to do. Additionally you can forward this email to a friend and point them to the subscribe button at the bottom. Again thank you for reading!

Tip Charge Poll:

As you may recall last time we had a reader poll about restaurant surcharges for using credit cards. Here are the results:

“Happy to pay it / it doesn’t bother me” = 0%

“It annoys me but I pay it anyways” = 74%

“It infuriates me / I pay with cash now” = 26%

I think I’ll let those results speak for themselves…..

Finally, here is what’s on my radar:

sports

Major professional sports franchises have proven over time to be a fantastic store of value (not to mention a store of ego) for the super wealthy. Last summer the Washington Commanders sold for a staggering $6 billion while the Dallas Mavericks transacted at an implied valuation of nearly $4 billion. As these values grow to absurd levels, naturally the pool of investors becomes smaller.

The NFL by example has rules around ownership. The lead owner must put up at least 30% of the capital and there are strict caps on how much debt can be used to fund a purchase. Given this restrictive Stock to Flow environment for creating new buyers, the NFL is exploring Private Equity as potential exit liquidity for owners.

Shrinking liquidity is never a good thing for protecting asset values….

macro

Inflation is a hot topic, and hot inflation is an even hotter topic. When CPI came in above expectations on Feb 13, markets promptly sold off on the realization that near term rate cuts are off the table.

Over in the UK, inflation remains entrenched as well.

Coming down from our stratospheric inflation rates in 2022 is like a spaceship re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere, it’s going to be a very bumpy descent. On the one hand you have traders looking to profit off of every inflation print, creating volatility in the markets. On the other hand, you have investors and consumers who desperately need inflation to come down (so they can afford life’s necessities) or to initiate rate cuts (to save their real estate empires)

Lastly you have financial advisors on twitter / X with zero understanding of inflation or macro attempting to sooth investors.. I was shocked to see this guy has 300k followers.. Lesson here is follower count ≠ knowledge!

bitcoin

the recent surge in the price of bitcoin has caught some by surprise, but not Fred Krueger. As I referenced not long ago, his understanding of the ETF market is rock solid…and his forecast has remained that Bitcoin’s price should remain in a bullish trend - not because of some intricate on-chain dynamics or confusing algorithm but simply due to Stock to Flow…. He predicted that the capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs would be substantial and against a fixed supply the only result is increasing pricing pressure which led to the rally.

Bitcoin miners are also catching a bid…many are up 50-100% in just the last few weeks.

Obviously this price action cuts both ways, but thus far this has been a positive sign for investors appetite to adding bitcoin exposure to their portfolios.

Clark Gaines focuses on alternative investment strategies at Almanack Investment Partners, and is based in Charleston, SC.

Please refer to our disclaimers below!

This communication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or products or to participate in any product or trading strategy. No sale of securities will be made in any jurisdiction in which the offer, solicitation, or sale is not authorized or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make the offer, solicitation, or sale. If any such offer of securities or products is made, it will be made pursuant to a definitive confidential offering document or other documentation which contains material information not contained herein and to which prospective investors will be referred. Any decision to invest in such securities or products should be made solely in reliance upon such documentation and not this communication. .Information contained herein is based on data obtained from statistical services, company reports or communications, or other sources, believed reliable. However, we have not verified this information, and we make no representations whatsoever as to its accuracy or completeness.  The views and opinions expressed in this communication represent those of Clark Gaines and should not be construed otherwise.Investment Advisory products and services are being offered through Almanack Investment Partners, LLC an SEC registered investment advisor. For additional information about Almanack Investment Partners, LLC, please visit www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.

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